Antecedents to overconfidence

Results of overconfidence

Large amounts of positive feedback

Lack of doubt / false sense of expertise

Reliance on unaided memory

Inadequate search for possibilities and evidence

Lack of awareness of environmental or treatment effects on outcomes

Conflicting goals or failure to prioritize the most appropriate goal

Failure to search for disconfirming information

Choosing the preferred (biased) possibility over the best possibility

Kissinger assembles the antecedents to overconfidence. The bottom line result is failure to reach the desired goal (outcome) due to "poor thinking".